This game, hosted at Ohio Stadium on Dec. 21, marks just the second meeting between these programs, with Tennessee having won the first encounter at the 1996 Citrus Bowl.
For Ohio State, this playoff berth comes with its share of pressure. Following a 10-2 season that included tough losses to Oregon and Michigan, the Buckeyes aim to bounce back under head coach Ryan Day.
While their loss to Michigan sparked criticism, a strong showing against Tennessee could restore confidence in the program. As one analysis put it,
“All of the negative media coverage can disappear for the Buckeyes if they knock off Tennessee.”
On paper, Ohio State holds the edge. The Buckeyes boast a deep roster led by star wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka. However, recent struggles — like their conservative offensive play-calling in the Michigan game — have raised questions about the team’s ability to maximize its talent.
Weather conditions could also play a role, particularly given Tennessee’s reliance on quarterback Nico Iamaleava, a California native unaccustomed to cold-weather games.
Tennessee: A Tough Opponent on the Rise
The Volunteers are no strangers to adversity, finishing the regular season at 10-2 with wins over top-tier opponents like Alabama, Oklahoma, and Florida. Despite losses to Georgia and Arkansas, Tennessee has established itself as a physical team with a dominant run game and a stout defensive line.
Their smashmouth football style draws comparisons to Michigan, a team that outmuscled Ohio State in November.
One factor working in Tennessee’s favor is their ability to control the trenches. The Volunteers’ defensive line could exploit Ohio State’s reshuffled offensive line, potentially disrupting the Buckeyes’ rhythm.
This strength makes the Volunteers a dangerous underdog, with a 35.4% winning probability according to College Football Network’s playoff predictor.
Despite this, Ohio State remains the betting favorite. DraftKings Sportsbook OH lists the Buckeyes as 7.5-point favorites, with a -270 moneyline indicating strong confidence in their ability to defend home turf.
However, as College Football Network observed,
“Tennessee is the better team”
in several areas, making this matchup anything but straightforward.
Can Ohio State Win It All?
A victory over Tennessee would send Ohio State to a quarterfinal clash against No. 1 Oregon, the team that handed them their first loss of the season. The Buckeyes would relish a chance to avenge that defeat, especially with the national title on the line.
Ohio State’s championship odds stand at +450, the fourth-best in the field. While Georgia (+350) and Oregon (+325) are considered the favorites, the Buckeyes’ deep roster and playoff experience cannot be overlooked. The key for Ohio State will be rediscovering their offensive identity and shoring up their defense against physical teams like Tennessee and, potentially, Oregon.
If the Buckeyes can capitalize on their talent and home-field advantage, they have the tools to make a deep playoff run. However, their journey begins with a stern test against a hungry Volunteers squad eager to make a statement.
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