Colorado is looking to end a five-game losing streak and has an away record of 13-26. Cincinnati extended its winning streak to eight games on Sunday with a 9-7 extra-innings away victory over the Houston Astros. The Reds are 17-18 this season at Great American Ballpark.
Cincinnati opened as a -140 favorite with a 9.5 run total when the two sides square off Monday night at 7:10 pm at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Colorado Riding the Struggle Bus
The Rockies are struggling in the NL West, sitting 15 games behind the Diamondbacks. They have been without key players Charlie Blackmon, Kris Bryant, and C.J. Cron for much of the season, and the three have been ruled out for their series against the Reds. Ryan McMahon leads the Rockies in home runs and RBI, Elias Diaz leads the team in batting average, and Brenton Doyle has a team-high 10 stolen bases.
Hey, watch out in the second deck 👀
⭐️ https://t.co/WDjLr0wQOV ⭐ pic.twitter.com/nap15DTMNn
— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) June 15, 2023
Austin Gomber has had a rough season, with a 4-6 record and 7.11 ERA. However, he has been better in his last five starts, surrendering only 19 earned runs over 22.1 innings. His xFIP is two runs lower than his ERA, which suggests that he may be due for some positive regression. However, his road xFIP is higher than his ERA, which could be a problem on Monday night against the Reds.
Reds Hottest Team in Baseball
The Reds have been on fire. Entering Sunday’s matchup with the Houston Astros, Cincinnati has won eight straight games and is now 1 game behind the Milwaukee Brewers for first place in the NL Central. Rookie Spencer Steer leads the red legs in batting average and on-base percentage (OBP) 2B Jonathan India tops the Reds in bombs and hits, and LF Jake Fraley leads Cincinnati with 38 RBI and was activated Sunday from the 10-day IL.
McTriple with extra runs, please. @mattmclain_ ⭐ https://t.co/HKf2mrrBht pic.twitter.com/wuAGu4IBqv
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) June 17, 2023
Williamson (1-0, 5.40) has given up 17 runs over his previous 23 innings on the bump. The Reds hurler offers similar ERA and xFIP numbers at Great American Ballpark, and both are nearly six runs per game, which is less than ideal. Williamson doesn’t strike out many, but he’s walking almost four batters with 2.7 bombs allowed per nine innings pitched at home.
Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds Best Bet: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 +140 (DraftKings)
Cincinnati has been playing inspired ball since Elly De La Cruz was called up just over 10 days ago, and my best bet is Cincinnati -1.5 +140 at DraftKings.
-1.5 runs means the Reds have to beat Colorado by 2+ runs, and I believe the red-hot Cincinnati bats will take care of business at Great American Ballpark and light up Gomber for a big win.
Gomber has been a gas can this season but his road splits are worse than his overall numbers and Cincinnati has been stroking, scoring 29 runs over their last five. Gombar is walking four per nine away from Coors Field and that will be problematic against a Reds side blasting seven bombs over the past seven days.
Williamson is the wild card here. He hasn’t had the best success at home this season but Colorado has the worst offense in the National League against southpaws.
The rookie hurler may allow some runs, but the Rockies offense is missing too many key personnel and the Reds offense should score enough runs to win this game by at least two runs. Cincinnati Reds -1.5 +140 (DraftKings)
